Most popup tools let you target new visitors, returning visitors, or everyone. Almost nobody changes the default.
I pulled data from our platform across 18,648 campaigns that each had at least 100 displays. What I found wasn’t surprising in hindsight, but the scale of how many people leave this setting untouched is kind of wild.
What does the data actually show?
Short answer: Segmented campaigns significantly outperform the default “all visitors” approach, but only about 1 in 10 campaigns uses any visitor segmentation at all.
Here’s the breakdown:
| Visitor Targeting | Campaigns | % of Total | Total Displays | Leads | CVR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL (default) | 16,567 | 88.8% | 407.1M | 1,831,113 | 0.45% |
| NEW visitors only | 1,668 | 8.9% | 55.7M | 562,447 | 1.01% |
| RETURNING visitors only | 140 | 0.8% | 1.16M | 12,306 | 1.06% |
(The three rows above account for ~98.5% of the 18,648 campaigns; the remaining ~1.5% sit in a small “other” bucket not broken out separately.)
The NEW visitor campaigns convert at 1.01% vs. 0.45% for the default. That’s 2.2x better. Returning visitor campaigns hit 1.06% — about 2.4x better.
But here’s the thing I want to be upfront about: the returning visitor bucket is tiny. 140 campaigns, and only 44 of those had any leads at all. The median CVR for that group is 2.27%, which sounds great, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on that number. Small sample, lots of variance.
Why is “target everyone” the overwhelming default?
It’s the path of least resistance. When you set up a popup, you want it to live fast. Visitor type is one of those settings most people skip on setup and never revisit.
Looking at the raw distribution across all 102,000+ campaigns on the platform (including campaigns with under 100 displays):
- 60.8% target ALL visitors
- 32.5% have no visitor setting configured at all (NULL)
- 4.9% target NEW visitors only
- 1.8% target RETURNING visitors only
So combined, around 93% of campaigns make no distinction between someone who’s never seen your site and someone who’s been back five times. Those are very different people with very different buying signals, and the popup copy treating them the same way probably reflects that.
Does it actually make sense to treat these segments differently?
Yes, but the why matters more than just flipping the toggle.
A new visitor landing on your site for the first time probably doesn’t need a “Welcome back! Here’s 10% off” popup. That’s just confusing. They also haven’t built any trust yet, so a hard lead capture immediately can feel aggressive.
Returning visitors are different. They’ve already decided your site is worth coming back to. An offer or a targeted message at that point isn’t an interruption — it’s more like a well-timed follow-up.
The campaigns that seem to perform best when targeting returning visitors tend to do things like:
- Reference the prior visit (“Still thinking it over?”)
- Offer something progressive (a discount that wasn’t shown on visit 1)
- Push a decision rather than introduce the brand
New visitor campaigns that perform well tend to focus more on capturing intent early (email for updates, a lead magnet) without asking for too much commitment upfront.
So why isn’t everyone doing this?
Honestly, I think it’s a few things colliding at once.
First, setting it up requires knowing the feature exists. Most users don’t read documentation. They set up the popup visually and publish it.
Second, you need enough traffic to segment meaningfully. If you’re getting 500 visitors a month, splitting that into new vs. returning means both groups are thin. The popup might not fire enough to matter.
Third, the default shouldn’t be “all visitors” if the data shows segmentation outperforms it this consistently. It probably should prompt users to think about this during setup instead of burying it in advanced settings.
The 2x+ lift is real in aggregate, but I’d want anyone reading this to test it themselves rather than just take the platform-wide numbers at face value. Your audience might behave differently.
What I’d actually do with this
If you’re running popups and haven’t touched the visitor targeting setting, it’s worth at least thinking about. Not because the numbers guarantee you’ll double conversions, but because the logic holds: a message that’s relevant to where someone is in their relationship with your site should outperform a generic one.
Start with new visitor targeting if you’re doing lead capture. It’s the bigger audience, and the sample size in our data is more reliable. If you have a clear returning visitor use case (win-back, upgrade nudge, loyalty offer), test it, just don’t draw conclusions from small sample sizes too quickly.
The returning visitor segment in our data had a higher median CVR than new visitors, but with 44 campaigns that had actual leads, that’s a smaller sample to work with. The signal is consistent with what you’d expect from better-targeted campaigns, though the small sample means the exact percentage will shift as more data comes in.
TL;DR:
Analyzed 18,648 popup campaigns. 88.8% use the default “all visitors” targeting at 0.45% CVR. Campaigns targeting new visitors only hit 1.01% CVR. Returning visitors hit 1.06%. That’s a 2-2.4x difference — but only 9.7% of campaigns use any segmentation at all. The returning visitor bucket is tiny (140 campaigns), so treat that number carefully. The new visitor data is more reliable and still shows a clear lift worth testing.